Erik Van Aken, Rocky Mountain College – Chaos and Cause

Chaos theory has changed how we think about certain ideas in physics.

Erik Van Aken, instructor of philosophy and religious studies at Rocky Mountain College, explains why.

Erik Van Aken is Instructor of Philosophy and Religious Studies at Rocky Mountain College. His research focuses on the metaphysics of causality, scientific methodology, and debates on objectivity.

Chaos and Cause

In one episode of The Simpsons, Homer travels back in time, careful not to disturb anything—until he swats a mosquito. When he returns to the present, it is drastically altered. The concept at play here is chaos theory, or what we often call the “butterfly effect.” It is the idea that small events, like a butterfly flapping its wings in Brazil, can trigger a chain reaction leading to a significant and unpredictable event, like a hurricane in Texas weeks later.

Chaos theory challenges classical physics, where Newtonian mechanics once described a predictable universe governed by fixed laws. In the 1960s, Meteorologist Edward Lorenz, studying weather patterns at MIT, discovered that even tiny changes—a seemingly insignificant rounding error—could drastically alter long-term forecasts. This phenomenon, known as “sensitive dependence on initial conditions,” reveals that minor variations can lead to vastly different and unpredictable results in chaotic systems.

Yet, if the universe is so unpredictable, how can we make sense of cause and effect? Philosophers like R.G. Collingwood suggest a more practical, human-centered approach, focusing on “handles”—aspects of nature we can influence as agents and which provide us with a sense of control. So, while chaos theory teaches us that the butterfly does have some effect on a later storm, we don’t blame a butterfly for a hurricane because we can’t control its movements to prevent or create a storm.

Chaos theory, then, doesn’t just complicate causality—it challenges us to rethink human agency. While nature may be sensitive to an infinite number of variables, meaningful causes are those we can engage with, offering control over the outcomes that matter most in our lives.