The flashpoint for a potential World War III may not be where you think.
John Harney, associate professor of history at Centre College, explores this location.
John Harney is an associate professor of history at Centre College. His scholarly interests include identity formation and colonial and post-colonial relations in East Asia, the history of popular participation in sports in the modern era, Catholicism and Catholic communities in 20th-century China, representations of history in video games, and the wider uses and interpretations of history in popular culture.
Taiwan Remains a Flashpoint For a Potential World War
Taiwan, a small island off the coast of China that the Beijing government claims as Chinese territory, has served as a potential flashpoint for potential global war for decades. During the Cold War competing governments in Beijing and Taipei each claimed to be the rightful government of China, following a communist revolution in 1949 that saw Chairman Mao come to power on the mainland and US ally Chiang Kai-shek retreat to Taiwan to lead a government in exile. After years of antipathy between Washington and Beijing, Richard Nixon famously visited China in 1972. Both governments joint-released the Shanghai Communique, a document in which the US acknowledged that “all Chinese on either side of the Taiwan Strait maintain there is but one China.”
The word “acknowledge” is very important. It’s the cornerstone of the US policy of strategic ambiguity on Taiwan: in effect, seeking to maintain the status quo for as long as possible. But soon the status quo altered quite dramatically. In 1975 Chiang Kai-shek died after decades of ruling Taiwan via martial law, creating an opening for Taiwanese democratization. In 1996 the country hosted its first direct presidential elections. Today Taiwan is a thriving democracy in clear contrast to China, which if anything is regressing under current leader Xi Jinping.
The Chinese government’s suppression of free speech and political activity in Hong Kong has helped fuel the acceleration of a “Taiwanese” identity; vanishingly few people living in Taiwan today regard themselves as citizens of a rightful Chinese government in exile. But the threat of Chinese military invasion remains, and with ongoing tension between China and the United States – and the importance of Taiwanese firms in the production of microchips – Taiwan remains a flashpoint for a potential world war, whether anyone still thinks there are two Chinas or not.
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