Sara Harmouch, American University – Sudan’s Civil War: A New Haven for Al-Qaida

On this Student Spotlight: Al-Qaida may be exploiting a weakness in an African state in crisis.

Sara Harmouch, doctoral candidate in justice, law and criminology at American University, explores how.

Sara Harmouch is the founder and CEO of H9 Defense and a doctoral candidate at American University’s School of Public Affairs. Growing up in Lebanon, she witnessed firsthand the impact of extremism. These personal experiences have given her deep insights into how militant groups think, act, and operate, insights that now guide her work at H9 Defense and her doctoral research on militant groups’ resolve and its impact on their decisions to conduct domestic or international attacks. Harmouch has also conducted extensive fieldwork across the Middle East and North Africa region. She consults for the U.S. government and the private sector and has recently briefed NATO on religious militant groups. Her research focuses on asymmetric warfare, militant groups, political violence, and threats to democracies.

Sudan’s Civil War: A New Haven for Al-Qaida

Recent research highlights a worrying trend in Sudan: the potential for al-Qaida to gain a strong foothold amid ongoing civil strife. Sudan’s turbulent history and strategic location make it a prime target for such terrorist groups.

Sudan’s troubles began in 1989 when Omar al-Bashir took power, aligning with radical Islamist ideologies and sheltering al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden. Despite bin Laden’s expulsion in 1996, his influence lingered, and al-Bashir’s regime continued to support extremist activities. Notably, he backed the Janjaweed militia responsible for the 2003 Darfur genocide. Later rebranded as the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), led by Mohammed Hamdan “Hemeti” Dagalo, has maintained brutal tactics, exacerbating the current conflict.

In April 2023, civil war erupted between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the paramilitary RSF, creating chaos that terrorist groups thrive on. The RSF, with its violent history and ties to al-Bashir’s regime, is consolidating control in strategic areas, creating a power vacuum that al-Qaida is eager to fill. Abu Hudhaifa al-Sudani, a high-ranking al-Qaeda leader, highlighted Sudan’s strategic importance in his 2022 manifesto, urging jihadists to exploit the chaos. Al-Qaeda’s interest in Sudan is not new; bin Laden saw it as a vital operational base for global jihad.

Sudan’s strategic location, bridging North and sub-Saharan Africa and resources, make it an attractive base for al-Qaida, aiming to expand its influence. Al-Qaeda’s renewed focus on Sudan underscores the region’s potential as a launchpad for orchestrating attacks on the U.S. and its allies. The group’s presence in conflict zones like Niger and Libya further demonstrates its ambition to target U.S. interests worldwide. If al-Qaeda establishes a stronghold in Sudan, it could leverage the country’s rich resources, including oil and gold, to enhance its capabilities. This could exacerbate regional conflicts, threaten crucial trade routes, and lead to broader geopolitical unrest. The potential resurgence of al-Qaeda in Sudan poses a significant threat to global security.

Read More:
[War on the Rocks] – AL-QAEDA: A DEFEATED THREAT? THINK AGAIN.
[The Conversation] – Sudan’s descent into chaos sets stage for al-Qaida to make a return to historic stronghold
[9/11 Memorial] – Al-Qaeda: A Threat Evolved?
[Lawfare] – Al-Qaeda’s Looming Threat: Are We Looking Over the Wrong Horizon?